New projections show Carleton Place population growth tied to housing and commercial development
CARLETON PLACE — Carleton Place’s population could reach about 23,700 residents by 2051 as housing and commercial development continue to expand, according to the town’s 2025 Development Services Activity Report.
Council received the report during the March 10 committee of the whole meeting, providing an overview of building activity, population projections and development trends across the community.
Updated projections from Lanark County show the town could reach roughly 23,700 people and about 10,300 households by 2051. That represents annual growth of about 2.1 per cent, or roughly 164 new homes each year.
Although Director of Development Services Niki Dwyer was not present to present the report, councillors noted the amount of information it provides about local growth.
“There’s a lot of valuable information here about how we’re growing year after year, projections, different types of growth. It’s an interesting read,” said Coun. Dena Comley.
Deputy Mayor Andrew Tennant also pointed to changes in commercial development patterns.
“I noted a couple of things that were really unique as our commercial is growing and that’s sort of significant that the build form has changed over time,” he said.
Mayor Toby Randell said attracting more commercial investment is important to balance the town’s tax base.
“People coming in with new grocery stores or new fast food places does help offset the residential tax burden, which we are very high on right now,” Randell said. “Last I looked, I think we were slightly over 80 per cent residential tax. So if we can get that number down, it’s better for everybody.”
In 2025, the town recorded 112 new dwelling units. While that number was lower than in 2024, staff say the drop reflects the timing of permits issued for several large apartment projects the previous year rather than a slowdown in development.
Randell also noted that a decline in building permits may reflect broader economic pressures.
“The fact that we’ve decreased 57 per cent in building permits in the last year kind of speaks to the economy, which could carry over even into this year. So something to keep an eye on,” he said.
Overall building activity remained strong, with 263 permits issued, generating more than $820,000 in permit fees and $3.17 million in development charges.
The report also notes the town has a healthy supply of land available for future housing, with hundreds of units planned in registered or draft-approved subdivisions and additional projects currently under review.
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Might be worth dusting off the many documents and proposals done years ago related to Economic Development and strategies for how to increase commercial tax base in relation to residential taxes. 😉 A lot of time, thought and effort went into that — including the creation of a senior Economic Development Officer mandate and job description (very different than an ED Coordinator role). Perhaps the extent of projected growth and the need to effectively plan for and manage all the various implications of that growth warrant a review of how to most effectively and proactively address the challenges/opportunities ahead?